The saying goes: hindsight is 20/20. The idea that once you know the outcome of a situation or the answer to a difficult problem, it’s much easier to see why something happened or what you could have done differently. Every one of us tends to think that past events were more predictable than they actually were. This bias is why all the clues, no matter how obscure, seem so obvious at the conclusion of a Sherlock Holmes mystery.
But 20/20 is average. It is a baseline. It affirms that you can see at 20 meters what you are supposed to see at 20 meters. It is, however, much harder to see what’s coming. To have foresight.
When researching “Expert Political Judgement”, the psychologist Philip Tetlock came to the conclusion that the predictions of experts were not much better than chance. Writing: “In this age of academic hyper specialization, there is no reason for supposing that contributors to top journals—distinguished political scientists, area study specialists, economists, and so on—are any better than journalists or attentive readers of the New York Times in reading emerging situations.” Rather than specific domain knowledge, broad perspectives and a willingness to consider the ideas of others were a much better indicator of someone’s ability to predict future outcomes.
As I was preparing to speak at DLD Munich about the ways technology will shape our future, I found myself revisiting some of my favorite works of science fiction. Futures imagined by the likes of Kurt Vonnegut and Cory Doctorow, that grapple with existential questions, such as how we define value in a society where work is no longer necessary, or what it means to consciously disconnect. Stories that illustrate the possible pitfalls that society could encounter — but also shed light on how, with enough foresight and empathy, we can avoid them.
Like Tetlock, I believe that to have a pulse on the future, it’s crucial to embrace complexity and draw from diverse perspectives (such as literature and philosophy). The ancient Greek poet Archilochus wrote, “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” Because the fox roams widely, it accumulates insights and adapts quickly to changing circumstances. While there are moments that call for unwavering focus, the challenges that lie ahead demand the fox’s curiosity, flexibility, and openness to possibility.
As such, I’d like to suggest a few books that may help you think more like a fox. I hope there’s at least one in this list that inspires you, like it has me:
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“The Machine Stops” by E.M. Forster
Written in 1909, Forster’s portrayal of a society that prefers virtual experiences to real-world encounters eerily anticipates our current dependency on digital connectivity. As our reliance on technology grows, his message about isolation and the fragility of these networks seems more urgent than ever. -
“Player Piano” by Kurt Vonnegut
Written in 1952, Player Piano is Vonnegut’s first novel, which takes a darkly satirical look at the consequences of hyper-automation. As discussions about AI and mass displacement heat up, Vonnegut’s cautionary tale about what happens when human labor and creativity are sidelined feels alarmingly prescient. -
“Walkaway” by Cory Doctorow
Doctorow envisions a future shaped by grassroots innovations, 3D printing, and cooperative governance. His vision suggests both the resilience of self-organized communities and the fragility of systems trying to maintain control. With conversations about decentralized tech on the rise, Walkaway becomes a roadmap for alternative social structures. -
“Infomacracy” by Malka Older
Older envisions a world carved into “micro-democracies,” each governed by data-driven elections under the watchful eye of a global information network. This premise is startlingly relevant to our current discussions about election integrity, misinformation, and the role of big tech. It challenges us to imagine whether more localized, data-centric politics could create a fairer system or simply magnify the existing faults. -
“Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?” by Philip Tetlock
Tetlock’s examination of expert forecasts reveals how overconfidence and narrow thinking undermine predictive accuracy. In an era saturated with bold predictions from pundits, social media influencers, and algorithms, his findings underscore the value of open-minded skepticism. They hint that embracing complexity and uncertainty may be the key to better decisions in an unpredictable future. -
“Niksen: The Dutch Art of Doing Nothing” by Annette Lavrijsen
Lavrijsen’s guide to intentional idleness contrasts sharply with our relentless quest for productivity. At a time when stress-related health issues are on the rise, the principle of niksen suggests that doing “nothing” can be a transformative act of self-care. It hints at a future where deliberate rest and mental pauses may become as vital as any technological innovation. -
“The Hedgehog and the Fox: An Essay on Tolstoy’s View of History” by Isaiah Berlin
Berlin’s timeless distinction between the single-minded “hedgehog” and the multifaceted “fox” offers a framework for interpreting complex world events. As global challenges become more interconnected, the ability to balance overarching theories with granular realities grows ever more important. This essay predicts that those who can juggle diverse perspectives stand the best chance of navigating an uncertain future.
Note: As sharing my reading list is becoming an annual occurrence, I’d love to know which books have shaped the way that you see the future. Let me know on X, Bluesky or LinkedIn.
Now, go build!
